New research from Danske BankMarket movers today
FOMC minutes tonight are likely to confirm that the Fed is on track for a December hike, although with the market pricing this in with around a 70% chance, it may not change expectations much. However, the minutes may reveal more about how the Fed’s balance between a stronger economy and still too low inflation is viewed. Previous minutes have shown diverging views with one camp (majority) trusting the Philips curve (lower unemployment leads to wage pressure eventually) while another camp is in favour of awaiting clearer signs that inflation is actually moving towards the Fed’s target of 2%.
Today, we will also have Fed speeches by Evans (voter, dovish) and Williams (non-voter, neutral).
The ECB’s Peter Praet is due to speak tonight in New York. It seems that market consensus is moving in the direction of a ‘lower for longer’ QE extension, i.e. EUR20 or EUR30bn for nine months due partly to recent signals from Praet.
In Scandi, Sweden is due to release Prospera inflation expectations. See next page.
Selected market news Yours faithfully
It is not possible to reply to this e-mail, but you can write to firstname.lastname@example.org to change your subscription. Danske Bank, 2-12 Holmens Kanal, DK-1092 Copenhagen K, +45 3344 0000