New research from Danske Bank Markets
Market Movers Today
Focus will be on US data with the release of the CPI inflation figure. We expect headline inflation to decline to 1.6% y/y in June from 1.9% y/y in May while core inflation is set to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y. The Fed has recently had little focused on inflation being below target as it has strong belief in the Phillips curve i.e. the tight labour market should be enough to push wage growth and inflation higher eventually.
US retail sales figures for June are also due for release today. We expect a pick-up in the sales figure and growth of 0.3% m/m (control group) after it was flat on the month in May. In relation to this release the market will also keep an eye on latest consumer confidence data from University of Michigan to gauge consumer sentiment.
The oil market will look to the weekly US oil rig count for signs that US oil producers are responding negatively to recent slide in oil prices.