Danske Daily – 14 November 2017

New research from Danske BankMarket movers today

Today, we have a busy data calendar in the euro area with German November ZEW expectations, euro area industrial production for September and the German GDP estimate for Q3, where we estimate another solid GDP figure with 0.6% q/q growth, as PMIs remained at a high level. Note that the revised euro area GDP estimate for Q3 is also due for release but we will not get any component breakdown yet.

In the UK, CPI figures for October are expected to show a small uptick to 3.2%, driven mainly by lingering effects of the weak GBP.

The ECB’s two-day conference on central bank communication kicks off today with a panel debate at 11:00 CET between the Fed’s Janet Yellen, the ECB’s Mario Draghi, the BoE’s Mark Carney and the BoJ’s Kuroda. Judging from the line-up, this could make for a repeat of the Sintra conference in late June (where many a central banker turned hawkish). While it may not provide the same seemingly synchronised policy message it did back then, we do see a good chance that Draghi, in particular, could use this opportunity to underline the seriousness of the talk from recent ECB speakers that markets should not become too complacent as the ECB has entered ‘normalisation’ mode.

In the Scandi countries, focus is on the Swedish October housing price and inflation data, while Norwegian Q3 GDP figures are also due – see next page.

Selected market news Yours faithfully

Danske Bank

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