New research from Danske BankMarket movers today
In the US, the ISM non-manufacturing index in August is due out today. We believe the fall in July was too big and that it will have recovered some of the lost ground in August. Hence, we estimate the ISM non-manufacturing will come in at 55.0, which is also in line with what the PMI services for August indicates. Tonight at 20:00 CET, the Fed is due to release the Beige Book ahead of the FOMC meeting later this month.
We estimate German factory orders rose 0.4% m/m in July after the big increases in May and June (1.1% and 1.0%, respectively). With respect to the political development, Angela Merkel still seems on track to secure her fourth term in office, see German Election Monitor No. 1: Next euro area election unlikely to rock the boat , 29 August).
We expect the Bank of Canada to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in light of the reduced outlook for another Fed hike this year. We still pencil in one 25bp hike in Q4 this year.
In Poland, we expect the central bank to maintain the policy rate at 1.50%.
In Sweden, industrial and service production data for July are due at 09:30 CET, see page 2.