New research from Danske BankMarket movers today
Today’s most important event is the ECB meeting. The announcement will take place at 13:45 CET and Mario Draghi’s press conference begins at 14:30 CET. We do not expect any major announcements, as the ECB has hinted that there will be no decision on the QE programme before the October meeting. Instead, the focus is likely to be on how big a problem the current pace of euro appreciation is for the ECB. For more, see ECB Preview: Dovish stance due to strong euro , 1 September. Based on the OECD’s new global model, the 4% stronger effective euro should drag down headline inflation by an accumulated 0.3pp after two years, see Euro Area Research: Stronger EUR keeping inflation far from the ECB’s target , 27 July.
This morning at 09:30 CET, only a few hours before the ECB meeting, we do not expect the Swedish Riksbank to change either the repo rate or the repo rate path. Also, we do not expect any message about terminating the QE programme now. In our view, this is likely to come in October or December.
Today at 11:00 CET, we will get euro area GDP data for Q2 including subcomponents (for the first time).
In the US, initial jobless claims in the week ending 2 September are due out at 14:30 CET. Do not be surprised if we see a sharp increase due to Hurricane Harvey, although a jump should be only short-lived based on previous experiences.