Weekly Focus: Focus on inflation prints

New research from Danske Bank

Market Movers ahead

In the US , we expect inflation pressure remained muted in August.

In the euro area , wage cost growth in Q2 will probably have been constrained by still broad labour market slack.

We expect the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.25% with a vote count of 7-2 (vs 6-2 in August – one extra member this month).

In China , we pay more attention to the details of the industrial production release for August, as electricity generation and steel output should reflect the rebound over the summer in the Chinese economy.

The August inflation prints in Denmark and Norway will likely show a lower inflation rate than the previous month while going up a bit in Sweden .

In Norway , Norges Bank’s preferred measure of economic activity, the regional network survey, is likely to rise on the back of solid momentum in the Norwegian economy.

Global macro and market themes

Combination of strong global PMIs and postponement of US debt limit risk are good for equities.

Trump’s debt limit deal means that return of USD scarcity is postponed, likely till 2018.

Any dips in EUR/USD should be shallow and short-lived. EUR yields to range trade before rising next year, as markets price in an ECB tapering premium.

Fed to begin quantitative tightening at upcoming meeting but direction next year uncertain due to vacant seats.

Weekly Focus: Focus on inflation prints